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headquarters, the mothership. Call it
what you will. It is Bloomberg Business
Week Daily. I'm Tim Stenbec along with
Nora Melinda on this Thursday, August
21st, 2025. Usually we say Fed
Wednesday. I think we can call this a
Fed Thursday though because the Fed is
kicking off its economic symposium in
Jackson Hole. It's the central bank's
flagship event. Our focus is certainly
there this hour. In just a few minutes,
we're going to hear from Tom Keane. He's
on the ground there on what to expect
from Powell tomorrow. The latest also on
the DOJ urging Powell to remove Fed
Governor Lisa Cook. Nora, I think that's
what's going on with today's trade.
Everybody's just waiting to hear from
Powell tomorrow.
Absolutely. We're seeing definitely a
bit of caution here. We're looking at
what our fifth straight day of uh losses
rather if we are to see these declines
hold here. So, it really is seeming as
though people are really trying to
figure out what's going on. We've gotten
a lot of those retail data. So, we've
been seeing a lot of things from
earnings from a lot of different
companies and we're seeing investors are
digesting it, trying to figure out where
to be here in the market.
All right. Well, speaking of trying to
figure out where things are going, we're
going to speak to the CFO of Cava in
just a few minutes. This after just
earlier this month, last week, the
company saw its worst stock route ever
after they reported earnings. Concerns
about the consumer. Also, Rare Earths.
That's coming up a little later. We got
the CEO of Guardian Metal Resources
joining us as well. All that more coming
up over the next hour right here on
Bloomberg Business Week Daily. First up,
a check of the day, trade and top
business stories. Here he is, Charlie P.
Hi, thank you very much, Tim. Here's
what's going on. The Dow, the S&P,
NASDAQ, all in the red right now.
Caution is prevailing ahead of JPAL's
speech tomorrow. Stocks falling, bond
yields rising as that key factory report
this morning raised concern that
inflation pressures could dim the
outlook for rate cuts. The S&P down 21,
dropped there of onetenth of 1%, 6374.
West Tech. Uh, we've got the Dow Jones
Industrial Average down now by 150, a
decline there of 3/10en. Again, the S&P
down 3/10en of 1%. NASDAQ composite
index also down 3/10en of 1%. Russell
2000 index of small cap shares just
turning higher, looking at a gain right
now of onetenth of 1%. 10-year 4.32%
with a 2-year 3.79%.
Gold down $11 the ounce, a decline of
3/10en of 1%. West Texas Intermediate
crude is up 1.3% 6353 for a barrel of
WTI. Boeing shares lower now by 2/10en
of 1%. Sources tell Bloomberg Boeing is
heading closer to finalizing a deal with
China to sell as many as 500 aircraft.
Those sources say the mega sale to China
is contingent on the two nations
diffusing the trade hostilities that
hark back to President Trump's first
term in office and could still fall
apart. A New York appeals court has
struck down a $464 million fraud penalty
against President Trump and his company.
New York Attorney General Leticia James
says her office will challenge the
ruling at the New York Court of Appeals
stating that quote, "Yet another court
has ruled that the president violated
the law." Recapping S&P down 21, down
3/10en of 1%. And for ondemand news 24
hours a day, subscribe to Bloomberg News
now wherever you get your podcast. I'm
Charlie Pallet. at is a Bloomberg
business flash.
Hey, thanks for that Charlie. Appreciate
it. All eyes on Jackson Hole as the Fed
kicks off its economic symposium. It's
the flagship event for the US Central
Bank. Fed chair J. Powell set to speak
tomorrow. Before that, former Federal
Reserve Governor Betsy Duke was on
Bloomberg Surveillance earlier today.
She gave her expectations for the
chair's speech Friday at the symposium.
J Pal in terms of his legacy is looking
at what happens to his mandate, what
happens to inflation, what happens to
employment and how well does he manage
that. It's not any single speech. He's
going to f focus primarily on the
decision framework and um not give any
indication of where he's leaning for
September. Inflation expectations are
going to be the key um over the next
year or two. If inflation expectations
get out of line, then the Fed will be
very concerned. That's Betsy Duke,
former Fed Governor on Bloomberg
Surveillance earlier today. Joining us
now from Jackson Hole, Wyoming is
Bloomberg Surveillance co-host Tom
Keane. Tom, the event it's supposed to
be about policy, about economics, about
this economy, but happening at the same
time, the Justice Department signaling
possible plans to investigate Federal
Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. How is that
hanging over the event?
Oh, it's hanging over. It's the exact
correct language. There's no question
about it. You still have the normal
cadence of Jackson Hole. For example,
there's six, seven, eight papers that
come out. Michael McKe prints them out
perfectly and he reads every page of the
academic papers. Guess what? I don't do
that. I'm talking to the reporters here
gathered. And you're right, at the top
of the pile of topics here is Lisa Cook.
So, what's what's I She's I I I spoke to
Mike earlier. He said she's expected to
arrive. She hasn't arrived yet. Does it
does it take away from Fed Chair
Powell's message tomorrow? Does it
distract from what he says about this
economy and what he indicates or not
about September?
It's a really fair question. I don't
think so. I think Michael McKe, who's
better at this than I am, would say
exactly the same uh thing. What is
different here, and our Simon Flint in
Singapore absolutely nails it in an
essay today. What's different here is
the hard facts of the moment are
catching up with the chairman. I don't
know if they're rewriting the speech
tonight with the stars out above the
Tetons or maybe they're writing it on
the airplane. But what is very clear
here is the hard facts as Mr. Flint says
have caught up. You have the economic
data today. You got concern about
inflation. And Tim, the number one thing
I'm watching off the Bloomberg here is
the 30-year bond. Once again, we're
making a dash up near 5%. That's a kind
of inflation whispers that have to
change the speech.
Tom, of course, you mentioned the
chairman will speak tomorrow at Jackson
Hole. Can you just tell us a bit more
about what intend attendees are really
looking to hear from him?
Uh, it varies every year. There was one
year here, I'm going to say three years
ago, I can't remember, where we were
prepared for a 15 minute, 20 minute
speech and I believe he he spoke for
eight minutes. So, every year is
different. I think the pageantry will be
here. There'll be an international
audience here. Christine Lagardi or Mr.
Nagel of Germany is here. Uh Bailey of
the Bank of England scheduled as well.
But what's interesting is within the
pageantry, what do you expect from a
speech? And the answer is they'll be
looking for certain nuances and certain
single sentences that will be different.
What you're not going to get a lot of is
what's he going to do in September? That
would be rude. He's not going to do that
here. You mentioned a lot of those
international voices. I mean the ECB,
we've got Bank of Japan, emerging
markets. How are they playing a part of
the conversation this year in
particular?
Nora, you know my theme. You're already
stealing my theme. As we go to tomorrow
uh with Lisa Brammo, it's to me the
international angle here is the
importance uh point. William Rhodess,
Bill Rhodess of Cityroup, iconic at City
Bank. Uh it was called City Bank back
then had this great phrase central
banker to the world. He took it from
academics. This is a Jackson Hole where
Jerome Powell is the central banker to
the world is he defends delicately the
way we've done banking for years pushing
against President Trump. The theme
internationally here of central bank
independence will be key. I think also
the the theme of labor, Tom, and it's
something that we've spent a lot of time
talking about in recent weeks,
especially since that shocking report
came out earlier this month about those
numbers for the month of July. And it's
really shifted the conversation about
what employment in the United States and
what healthy employment numbers look
like in the United States where borders
are closed, immigration, legal and
illegal, is down, and growth among
American families is not what it was a
couple generations ago. What does that
picture look like in terms of reshaping
the American workforce?
Well, and reshaping the speech as well.
It's a movable feast right now, Tim. The
number one thing is we've seen a trend
in the data. The the conceit is labor
data always lags. Okay, fine. And we've
seen this trend including continuing
claims today. Brammo put out on Twitter.
I was, you know, uh stuck in an airport
somewhere. Brammo put out on Twitter
that great continuing uh claims chart
which shows this explosion up in the
weekly data. That's the kind of tea
leaves that gets a Fed to shift.
President Trump wants him to shift
quicker and let's remember we've got
that jobs report early September before
Mike McKe's in that press conference
September 17th.
Well, I want to just talk about the
energy. I mean, you've been to so many
of these symposiums. What's the energy
like on the ground this year in
Quiet. First thing I noticed when I
walked in, there's a whole new quiet
tone to that. Mike McKe and I remember I
remember August of '07, which was I
think I'll say seven days after LIBORE
OIS went out for standard uh deviations.
This place was chaos. My guess is a lot
of people are coming in tomorrow morning
and tomorrow morning here at the Jackson
Lake Lodge will not be quiet. There'll
be a real turnout for the speech. With
that said, it's one part academic, but
it is one part about this attack on the
central bank by President Trump.
Tom, going to have to leave it there.
Uh, we're going to speak to you
throughout the next couple of days.
Appreciate your time and we're glad you
arrived safely. I know it was a long
journey to get there. Tom Keane,
Bloomberg surveillance co-host out there
at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Stay tuned to Bloomberg for continuing
live coverage from Jackson Hole
throughout the rest of the week. Tom
Keane and company are on the ground in
Wyoming to cover the Kansas City Fed's
annual economic policy symposium and
highly anticipated remarks from Chair J.
Powell. We'll cap things off with a
special edition of Bloomberg
Surveillance. Tom, Lisa Brahmowitz, and
Mike McKe will all be part of that
special starting at 9:00 a.m. Wall
Street time on Friday. Well, also
watching the economic symposium in
Jackson is Alli McCartney, managing
director of wealth management and
private wealth adviser with Alignment
Partners at UBS. She and the team
managed just over $1 billion in assets.
She joins us from Rahobit Beach,
Delaware this afternoon. Ally, good to
have you back on the program. What do
you think Fed Chair Jay Powell will
communicate tomorrow?
I think as usual, he will probably not
communicate exactly the things that the
market is looking for. But I think that
what he will communicate, you just spoke
about briefly, which is this tension
between the dual mandate specifically
that they are now looking more at
weakening softening data in the labor
market than they are at long-term
inflation expectations, which although
uh Tom talked about the movement in the
30-year seem to be quite consistent. Um,
the last thing I'll leave you with is to
remember that last year was in a sense a
quite an epic meeting and that that was
the beginning of the long-awaited pivot.
I think that this meeting will be in a
sense um less uh revoly than that one.
When we look at the market performance
this past year thus far, it's up we have
the S&P 500 that's up about 8%. Of
course, that's a bit different from what
we saw the past couple years where we
were seeing doubledigit gains to end the
year here. So what do you think the
market really needs to hear to maintain
this momentum here as we go into the
second half of this year?
So I think we are at we're a bit in a
bit of a waiting game, right? That's a
normal thing in late August. Volumes are
really low. Uh you know people are on
vacation, less trading. We also happen
to be awaiting Jackson Hole on Friday
and Nvidia earnings next week. Nvidia
being the largest contributor from a a
market cap and from an earnings
perspective to the S&P 500 and that
being the conversation have that is
being um you know discussed now about
you know has AI pulled back which have
been driving the market. My sense is
that from a uh an equity perspective as
you said we've had two 20 plus year
return two years of 20 plus year returns
we you know are up 30% from the tariff
day low and 10% as you said a couple
days ago year to date and we're at
multiples that we really have only seen
twice um certainly in my trading life
the first being uh you know one very
unique day during the pandemic and the
other during the height of the internet
bubble.
So, you know, what we need, I think, is
stability to keep us in this range and
going higher. And I think the bull
market will remain intact. I think it
will likely be driven by continued
expansion in the AI trade, both in terms
of infrastructure, buys and builds, data
and power, picks and shovels, um, both
margins going up and productivity going
up. Um, and I think it'll also be, you
know, very much supported by a
decreasing interest rate cycle, but
we're certainly in a more precarious
position than we have been in a number
of years from a multiple perspective.
Alli, I'm trying to figure out this out
and I'm hoping you can help help out
with this. It's something I've been
thinking a lot about lately and it's
this idea of awakening consumer and in
just a few minutes, we're actually going
to be speaking with the CFO of Cava,
Trisha Toiver. Yeah. Yeah. She So, Cava
stock fell more, you know, more than 20%
in a single day last week because the
company pulled back its guidance
essentially talking about a foggess with
the American consumer out there. At the
same time, you have these high margin AI
companies that are essentially just
printing money, whether we talk about it
from an Nvidia perspective or from a
Meta Platforms perspective with margins
such as those. What's the tension there
in a world with a weakening consumer?
I think you nailed it. I think that
bifurcation and that tension really
exists. I think it exists in terms of
goods and services. I think it exists in
terms of consumer discretionary vers
staples and I think it exists in terms
of you know the the vast difference in
wealth and earning potential in this
country. So, what I am seeing in my
high-end clientele who are looking at
portfolios that are the highest they've
ever been and what I'm seeing in my own
neighborhood um is is the same. People
are definitely more reticent to spend.
Both simply the cost of goods and the
tariff implications which we're starting
to get wind are are real and people are
going to have to make choices and
decisions. The consumer has managed on
all levels to hold up extraordinarily
well. It's like the little engine that
could, but it cannot last forever. And
so I think that the next number of
quarters there is going to continue to
be exactly what you said with is this
bifurcation in many ways that you slice
the data whether it's demographics,
whether it's earnings, um whether it's
sector between the halves and the have
nots.
What are the opportunities here in the
market? How are you advising your
clients? What's the safe haven trade
right now?
Yeah, so look, I think all of this year
it has paid to be diversified, which has
not been the case in a very long time.
So you see right now, you see equities
that have recovered and gone up no
matter which area you're looking at in
which geography largely. You see gold,
which has done its job at protecting but
also continues to provide upside. And
you see fixed income, you know, IG in
the US trading at 25-year types as
people try to get ahead of the Fed
moving down. So there are a lot of
opportunities. However, each is very
expensive. So I think the first is to
continue to be diversified and even
though it feels like things are
expensive to continue to be invested.
The second is to look for areas that
still have room to grow from a relative
perspective. Whether that's health care,
whether that's utilities, which can also
provide some defense, whether that's
financials, which again are trading
high, but have a number of tailwinds
from a regulatory and an interest rate
perspective. So, there most certainly
are opportunities out there. But you
know what we've been finding and we've
been especially finding this week is it
may not be the time to play all beta or
buy the S&P. This may be a time to be
much more discreet and disciplined about
what you buy and when you buy it. All
right, we only have about a minute left,
but I was talking to a colleague a
little earlier and she sort of expla
explained the the sense out in Silicon
Valley right now when it comes to the AI
and and the AI race and what private
companies are doing and she described it
as being on this roller coaster. But
there's this lack of understanding about
where we are on the roller coaster on
the way up, if we're close to the top or
not, are we?
It's a really great question and and I
have found in my career being both on
the east coast and the west coast that
there is always a difference in opinion
a bullance and understanding of various
technologies that are you know coming
out of Silicon Valley. I think that we
probably remain in the second early
third inning. We are not even close to
there yet. What I think the major
difference is by people that um live,
traffic and work out there is that they
are thinking many steps ahead in terms
of largecale effects on data on
businesses. Whereas I find that my
clients and the people that I work with
on Wall Street outside of let's say the
the analyst community are much more
focused on sort of large language models
chatpt and that's why I think there is
extreme room to run in the next decade.
Ali McCartney, managing director, wealth
management and private wealth adviser at
alignment partners at UBS. This is
Bloomberg.
It's 2:21 on Wall Street. We do check
markets all day long here at Bloomberg.
Stocks lower across the board. We're off
session lows, but still looking at a 20
point drop on the S&P 500 index now at
6375.
That's a decline of 3/10en of 1%. We've
got the Dow down 122 now a decline also
of 3/10en of 1%. The NASDAQ composite
index down 4/10. The NASDAQ 100 index
lower now by 510 of 1%. The Russell 2000
index of small cap shares higher by
2/10en of 1%. The 10-year 4.32% with the
2-year at 3.78%.
Gold is down $9 the ounce down 3/10en of
1% while West Texas Intermediate crude
is up 1.4% now 6360 for a barrel of WTI.
Bitcoin down 1.6% 112,540
on Bitcoin. Apple is raising the monthly
subscription price of its TV plus
streaming platform by 30% to $13. part
of a push to generate more revenue from
services. Apple shares now lower by
7/10en of 1%. Recapping stocks lower S&P
down 3/10en of 1%. And for ondemand news
24 hours a day, subscribe to Bloomberg
News now wherever you get your podcast.
I'm Charlie Pallet. That is a Bloomberg
Business Flash.
Hey, thanks so much for that update,
Charlie. There's been this renewed
interest on rare earths and critical
minerals as trade tensions between the
US and China have flared up. on that. We
spent quite a bit of time over the last
few months talking about them with CEOs
of companies in the space, Jim Latinsky
over at MP Materials, whose company is
set to have the defense department take
a $400 million preferred equity stake.
For more on rare earths, we're joined by
Oliver Fzen, CEO at Guardian Metal
Resources. It's a Londonbased metals
exploration and development company.
It's looking to bring production of
tungsten back to the US. Oliver joins us
from Toronto. Oliver, we've been
learning a lot about rarers lately. I
think my geology 101 professor would be
very happy with what we've been talking
about. We had Gary Evans from US
Antimony on last week talking about the
importance of antimony when it comes to
ballistics. That was something that was
new to me. Your focus is tungsten. Why
is tungsten important? Because it's not
classified as a rare earth.
Yeah. Well, first of all, thanks for
having me on, Tim. It's great to to be
here to talk more about tungsten. Funny
enough, you mentioned antimony and the
use within munitions and ballistics.
It's the same reason you need tungsten.
Tungsten is is one of the most dense
metals on the planet and also has the
highest melting point. So, it's been
used in the production of munitions for
decades and decades and decades. Now,
that's just one small use case, but
effectively when you look at the entire
critical metal supply chain, if even one
of those metals isn't there, that can
shut down manufacturing in the United
States of America. So, it's important
that we focus on not only just rare
earths, which as you mentioned are very
important, antimony, but tungsten is is
definitely up there considering the fact
that we're very reliant on on unfriendly
adversaries for global tungsten
supplies.
So, I want to talk a bit more about your
company in particular here. Which end
markets, you know, maybe EVs, defense,
renewables are really driving the most
urgency for your business right now?
Yeah, I would say probably the most
urgent use cases is across defense. um
because of that density, it's it's
ubiquitous and it's very important in
the production of munitions and and
things like tank armors as well. Um so
really right now given the geopolitical
landscape, we're seeing a huge amount of
um a surge in demand and increasing
demand across the defense industry for
this metal. Um but as you pointed out,
you know, it's not just a defense metal.
This is a metal that's used in a lot of
other industries. Uh some that come to
mind, aerospace, automotive, um green
energy is is another one. It's just it's
it's a really important metal. It's
almost irreplaceable in a lot of these
technologies. So, defense is driving the
narrative right now, but at the same
time, you know, we're hearing major
manufacturers in the United States of
America are actually saying, "We can't
get this tungsten. If we don't get it,
we're going to be shutting down."
So, the the Pentagon in July provided a
$6.2 million award to Golden Metal
Resources. It's the US unit of your
company, uh, to perform a
pre-feasibility study for a tungsten
mine near Hawthorne, Nevada. Is this is
this all the financing that you will
need? Will you need more from the DoD?
Will you need more from the government?
Will you need to raise more?
Yeah. So, it's it's part of the puzzle
for sure. So, that $6.2 million award
that we've received from the Department
of Defense, uh, which obviously we're
we're very grateful to the current
administration for that award. We'll
cover some of the key engineering work
streams as as part of that PFS study.
Um, but you're right, there are other
expenditures associated with bringing
that project and our projects into
production. Um but concurrently with
that uh with that award from the
Department of Defense, we raised $21
million US dollars predominantly with
existing shareholders, almost all
institutional. So we use those funds to
then cover the other additional costs
and all the funding combined really the
focus is on delivering two key tungsten
mines to the US market of which it's a
metal the US has not mined for over a
decade.
Do you need government support when it
comes to this project?
No, we we don't. Um, and you know, for
instance, we acquired Pilot Mountain,
which is a project that's received the
award from the Department of Defense
almost five years ago. So, it was a much
different market then. The landscape was
much different. And even at that time,
we acquired it because we felt like it
would be an economic uh tungsten
operation at previous pricing norms,
which is around $300, what's called an a
metric ton unit or about $30,000 a ton.
That being said, the price, you know,
fast forward 5 years, uh, China has
completely banned the exports of all
tungsten to the US market, the price is
closer to $50,000 a ton right now. Um,
but even at historic norms, you know,
this project and our projects, we
believe make sense. But obviously, you
know, the tailwinds we're seeing now
across the federal funding landscape,
but also permitting gives us that much
more confidence to push these projects
forward and deliver minds in America to
the US industrial base and defense
partners.
Oliver, let's talk a little bit about
China. You brought it up here. How do
you see China's dominance in the rare
earth processing shaping your strategy
here?
Yeah. No, it's a really good point,
Nora, and I'm glad you brought it up
because what what sort of sets tungsten
apart from, you know, the antimonies and
the rare earths, as we've discussed, is
the fact that the downstream processing
capacity actually fully exists on US
soil. It's one of the the kind of the
the very few critical metals of which
the US has the ability to actually take
what's called a tungsten concentrate and
turn it into actual usable finished
products for defense and for industry.
So the the benefit that we have is that
the only thing missing in the US right
now is a domestic mine source. You know,
we import in the US all of our
concentrates from from other countries
and and and just just to give you a data
point, China, Russian, North Korea
combined represent 90% of total global
supply of tungsten. I mean, just let
that kind of data point sit in. But the
thing that's missing right now in the US
is the mine supply. The processing is
there. So as soon as we can plug in our
two Nevada based tungsten mines, you
have a fully circular tungsten supply
chain that exists within the bounds of
the United States of America.
So where do you see demand for rare
earth materials and all of that just
more broadly over the next say 5 to 10
years?
Yeah. So tungsten specifically, we're
seeing very very healthy compounded
annual growth rates across the different
sectors that need it. Defense is is
certainly leading the charge right now.
Um, you know, we're seeing we're seeing
the EU and NATO and the US, you know,
defense budgets up are up across the
board. So, that drives the demand for
tungsten as you can probably imagine.
But also, you know, we mentioned
automotive, aerospace. Um, these are all
other other sectors that are the demand
for tungsten is increasing quite
considerably. Um, so we're seeing
healthy growth across the different
growth areas. And another use case that
uh many of your listeners probably are
not aware of is nuclear fusion. Um so
not to be confused with nuclear fusion
but effectively trying to harness the
energy of the sun here on earth. And the
only metal with a high enough melting
point to contain a nuclear fusion
reactor is tungsten. So we see longer
term considerable demand growth from
this this very important uh energy uh
supply um excuse me technology that
should be coming line in the next couple
years here in the next maybe decade.
One of the most read stories on the
Bloomberg terminal this week was about
the Trump administration or President
Trump's new brand of economic statecraft
deals like you know we might see with
Intel for example or the Department of
Defense deal with MP materials. So, I
mean, you could throw uh other companies
into that as well. AMD and Nvidia with
15% of certain chip sales in China going
to the government, maybe even US Steel
with that so-called golden share that
the US government has with US Steel.
What's in your view, because you've
taken some money from the government
this year, what's the difference between
a deal like the one that MP Materials
got in which the DoD will take a stake
and the stake that the Trump
administration is contemplating taking
in Intel? Do you see a difference in
those deals?
Yeah, for sure. So, the MP materials
deal is is pretty groundbreaking for the
sector. Um, and I think this is really a
strong signal to to the US critical
metals industry that that you know the
the administration is serious about mind
in America, which is really encouraging
to see. So, the MP materials deal,
there's lots of different um parts to
that. One of them is the price floor,
the direct investment, and also the
federal award as well. Um, so we've
received just an award. So this is this
is money that we can go and use to
fasttrack key engineering steps as part
of our project. But what what I'll say
is that uh you know there there's you
know there's there's speculation that
some of these unique uh and new sort of
uh benefits that MP has had with this
deal could could be applied across the
sector. So effectively the doors have
opened up for this uh this this type of
deal to be done across the defense
supply chain but also the critical metal
supply chain. So anyways I think that
all in all it's it's a really strong
signal to the market. It's a really
strong signal to myself as a CEO of a
critical metals company that the US
administration is serious about minds in
America and that obviously means that we
have these projects at exactly the right
time uh and trying to deliver this key
metal to the US market.
We're speaking with Oliver Fen, the CEO
at Guardian and Metal Resources. It's a
Londonbased metals exploration and
development company that's looking to
bring production of tungstkin back to
the US. Oliver, you mentioned the door
is open. Is your door open for an
investment from the US government where
the government or the Department of
Defense would actually take an equity
stake in the company? Would you welcome
that?
Of course. Yeah, we'd be we'd be we'd
more than welcome that. Um, like I said,
we all we have right now is the award
from the DoD, which is incredibly
important for the business. Um, but you
know, we're we're we're our goal here is
to deliver these mines to the US market.
So, anything that we can do to help get
support from the current administration
um and across the industry, we will have
absolutely have that conversation. But
the time is so critical right now. Like
I like I said, the US has no domestic
mine supply and we believe that we are
the leading company when it comes to
tungsten exploration development. So,
we're absolutely looking to have any
conversation that will help us get to
our goal quicker.
Are you having conversations right now
about that?
I I can't speak to that. Um, what I can
say is that, uh, you know, the award
that we received from the Department of
Defense was only about three weeks ago.
Um, so we're now really focused on
getting that money and focusing it in
the ground and toward towards creating
US jobs at our projects. Um, so that's
the focus right now, but obviously, you
know, we're looking to tap into any
tailwinds that can be available to
defense and critical metals uh,
companies that are focused on US
projects.
Oliver, how do you navigate trade
tensions and resource nationalism in
markets where you operate?
Yeah, I mean we try not to get too
focused on that. You know, it's uh
there's a lot of noise out there.
There's a lot of uh movement across
tariffs and and and you know, trade
relationships right now. Um I think the
main signal to to to our company and to
myself as the CEO is that there's a huge
push for minds in America. Um we want to
see these metals actually being mined on
American soil. Um so we we try not to
get too kind of caught up in the
day-to-day. you know, we have a job
here, which is to deliver these projects
to the US market. Um, but it, you know,
it's encouraging to see some of these
things that I think really once again
point to the fact that the current
administration is very focused on minds
in America and nowhere else in the
world. So, that's obviously a huge
benefit benefit to us as owners of two
key tungsten projects that are both on
US soil and also in the great state of
Nevada, which is a very mining friendly
place to be operating. Oliver, yes or
no? How quickly, or can I should say the
US become rare earth independent from
China?
Oh man, that's a good question. I mean,
yes, we can. I mean, there's some great
geology here. We need a huge amount of
support from the administration, which
we're seeing now. But we have to carry
through. That's the biggest thing. We
can't stop, start, stop, start. If we
have this same sort of support push
forward over 5, 10, 15 years, the
landscape will look a lot different, and
the US will become a lot less reliant on
friendly countries for these key input
metals. Oliver Fson, CEO at Guardian
Metal Resources. Coming up next on
Bloomberg Business Week Daily, we've got
the CFO of the fast casual restaurant
chain, Cabba. That's next on Bloomberg.
It's 240 on Wall Street. We do check
Stocks lower. Caution is prevailing on
Wall Street ahead of JPAL's speech
tomorrow. Stocks are falling, bond
yields are rising as a key factory
report this morning raised concern that
outlook for rate cuts. S&P is down 22,
decline there of 3/10en of 1%. The Dow
down 136 on the Dow a drop of 3/10en of
1%. NASDAQ lower by 78, a decline of
4/10en of 1%. The Russell 2000 index of
small cap shares higher now, reversing
earlier losses up onetenth of 1%. We've
got the 10-year at 4.32% with a 2-year
3.78%.
Gold down 9.5 the ounce down 3/10en of
is up 1.2% 6346 a barrel and Bitcoin now
down 1.7% 112,451
on Bitcoin. Sources tell Bloomberg
Anthropic is nearing a deal to raise as
much as $10 billion in a new round of
funding. And Palanteer technology shares
are higher today now after 6 days of
losses. Palanteer up now by 3/10en of
1%. For on demand news 24 hours a day,
subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever
you get your podcast. I'm Charlie
Pallet. That is a Bloomberg Business
Flash. Thanks, Charlie. One of the most
read stories on the Bloomberg today.
It's about the restaurant industry
feeling the effects of inflation and a
slowing economy. Specifically about
so-called fast casual chains feeling a
little bit of pain of late. Shares of
Chipotle and Sweet Green have each sunk
around 20% or more since reporting
lackluster second quarter earnings. So
too has the fast casual Mediterranean
chain Cava. Earlier this month, Cava
shares fell by a record after the
company trimmed its annual sales
guidance as skittish Diners spent less
on restaurant meals. Back with us for
the CFO briefing is Cava CFO Trisha
Toiver. Joining us from Baton Rouge,
Louisiana. Trisha, welcome back. Good to
have you on the program. Also with us is
Nina Tretman. She is Bloomberg News
senior editor. She writes the Bloomberg
CFO briefing newsletter. She's here in
the studio. Trisha, I want to start with
the consumer because on the earnings
call last week, you said, quote, "We're
operating in a fluid macroeconomic
environment and it's one that sort of
creates a fog for consumers during those
times they tend to step off the gas. Are
things getting at all less foggy? Are
they putting their foot back on the
gas?"
Well, certainly in the environment, it's
still a little fog out there and the
consumers are doing the best that they
can to navigate it. But what we're here
at Cava is to make sure that we're
delivering great value for the consumer
with amazing cuisine and wonderful
hospitality. And we believe when we do
that well, the consumers want to keep
coming back. So, we want to do
everything that we can to make sure that
we are delivering a value for them so
that if they're in a fog that they want
and they want to enjoy a meal out, they
want to come to Cava. and we believe
we've positioned ourselves to do that.
Patricia, thanks for joining us. And to
follow up on that, just wondering why do
you think your stock sold off so much
after the results? Like, of course, I
know you have strong strong comparisons.
Uh you grew a lot in recent years, so
probably tough comparisons is a better
word to say it, but why is the stock so
down so much?
Yeah, you know, hard to say. The stock
market goes up and the stock market goes
down. We're always focused on the long
term and certainly making sure that we
keep in mind those strong results that
we were um lapping as we entered into
this year. So over the last three years
we've driven traffic 20% and our
two-year same restaurant sales growth
were over 16% and three years at about
35%. And so those are really strong
dynamics and really reflecting the
strength of Cava and how much the
consumer loves the brand and wants to
continue to be with us. So the
reflection of the Q2 comps was more of a
anniversary or lapping over some of
those ch higher results in the prior
year.
And just wondering if we're thinking
about the the remainder of the year and
also next year of course we'll we'll see
how that plays out but I'm wondering in
how far are you prepared for a slowing
economy in which also a consumer might
make changes to their preferences in
terms of where they eat, how much they
spend, how often they eat out.
Yeah. One of the things that we do know
is consumers love innovation and
certainly um at Cababa we're prepared
for that over the upcoming quarters. Uh
coming soon we'll have chicken schwarma
in our restaurants which is a panstack
spit roasted white meat chicken that is
a new offering in our restaurants in
September. And then closely following
that will be our our cinnamon sugar pita
chips that are coming. Pita chips are a
fan favorite for us and we look forward
to bringing them with a little side of
honey to our guests um later on this
year. So those things coupled with great
service and incredible hospitality
really create an opportunity for guests
to enjoy us and experience that newness
that they so desire.
So the goal is basically to also have
new menu items um on the calendar so
that you basically have something that
that draws people in u potentially
offsetting any any weakness you might
see.
that real certainly a robust calendar um
with culinary innovation as well as
continued execution and enhancements to
our loyalty program which are already
planned for later this year and and
right now um we've got some excitement
in our restaurants. We partnered with
Thaddius Coats who was a former employee
of ours to create a um a plushy that
it's our pita chip plushy which has
created a lot of buzz and excitement. I
even uh my mom down in Florida reached
out to me and saw it on Instagram which
I was surprised nearing 80 she was uh in
tune to what was going on and she went
to go find them in in her market in Palm
Harbor and and was unable to find it.
They were already sold out. So making
sure we're culturally relevant um with
great cuisine is as a combination that
we think will be successful.
So I need to hear more about this
plushy.
Is it a Lebu?
It is uh it is our version of a Lebu.
So, as I mentioned, we partnered with
with the creator of Hippie Potter, and
he was he did work at Cobb at one point
in his career, and now he's a New York
City based creator. Uh, it's super cute.
I encourage you to uh go take a look and
see if you can find them if they're
still left where you are.
Well, Trisha, it sounds like you all are
finding really interesting ways to get
more creative during this uncertain time
period. What about any sort of price
softening? Are you all thinking about
bringing down the price point at all to
meet consumers where they are?
You know, price has been something we've
been focused on um for a very long time.
So over the past five years from the end
of 19 to the end of 24, we raised our
menu prices about 15% and CPI went up
23%. So we were 8% below CPI and I
believe as you know in the fast food
place uh prices went up during that time
period over 30%. So, we're always
focused on creating strong everyday
value for our guests and we believe
we're positioned to do that. So, in
2025, we've raised menu pricing less
than 2% at 1.7% well below CPI for food
away from home. And again, wanting to be
thoughtful at Cavo, we have very robust
restaurant level margins. And we want to
make sure that we're reinvesting those
margins back into team members and into
guests. And one way we do that with our
guests is to minimize price increases as
much as possible.
Trisha, just talk to us a little bit
about the impact of tariffs. I know that
you import beef uh from Australia. You
also import olives from Greece. So I
would assume there's some price impact
from from tariffs. Will you pass these
on to to consumers? And how about price
increases next year?
Yeah. So, um we we do receive some items
from overseas. Um and we have an
excellent supply chain team that has
really navigated this very fluid
environment regarding tariffs and
minimize the impacts as much as
possible. Um but we have no plans for
the rest of 2025 to pass along any price
increases to absorb any tariff impact
that we might experience. Uh and we're
looking thoughtfully at 2026. I I know
it's a supply chain question, but you're
the keeper of the books, so there's
obviously a reason you're importing some
of these things. Could you buy US beef
rather than import it?
We do buy US beef. So, we have a blend
of US and Australian beef. Um, and
there's no antibiotics ever added,
but could you exclusively could you
exclusively buy US beef? We think it's
important to have a balanced scalable
supply chain strategy and having a very
diversified base of suppliers with high
quality ingredients is the best path
forward for us. Always exploring what
options are, but um want to make sure
that we're in the position for the long
term to provide these high quality
ingredients to consumers each and every
day.
We're speaking with Kaba CFO Trisha
Toiver joining us from Baton Rouge,
Louisiana. I want to talk a little bit
about automation and ways that you can
save costs within the restaurant. What
can you tell us about ways you're
exploring automation that consumers
don't yet see? Whether that's in the
ordering process, whether that's in the
delivery process and actually bringing
that food to the consumer who's waiting
for it or if it's actually in the the
preparation process.
Yeah. So, always looking at ways to make
our team members lives easier um really
be more efficient in our restaurants and
also creating a better guest experience.
So, one example in our connect to
kitchen platform of automation is
leveraging our kitchen display systems,
so KDS. And so, we're adding those
systems to over 200 restaurants across
our fleet. And what that does is allow
our team members to fill orders more
accurately and efficiently. So, finding
a better creating a better guest
experience and delivering uh your bowl
the way you ordered it is super
important and that's something that
we're focused on. And this should also
increase efficiency in the restaurant
overall. Another way is you know even
more simply and not automation is making
sure that we find ways to make things
more efficient in the restaurant. So a
little while ago we um got all of our
pita chips. We used to slice them in
house to make our pita crisps and worked
with our partners to slice them ahead of
time so that we remove that complexity
out of the restaurants themselves. We we
also have explored and recently entered
into an investment uh with a company
called hyphen to look at ways to
automate our second digital makeline. So
we're in very early stages of that. But
think of a world where um the team
member can prepare bowls and pas at the
top of the line and there could be
automation underneath the line to
prepare those bowls creating greater
efficiency in the restaurant. We don't
plan to ever do that on the front of our
line. We think human connection is so
important and the way we leverage
technology is to enhance the human
experience and not replace it.
Trisha, you talked about all the ways
that you all are trying to make the
space more inviting for customers. Do
you all have any plans for maybe
celebrity partnerships or any sort of
advertising and marketing in that sense?
You know, in the first quarter of 2025,
we partnered with Gabby Thomas on our
campaign during that first quarter of
the year and really liked the
opportunity for Gabby to talk to us
about how she loves our food and how it
fuels her and um highlighted our spicy
lamb meatballs. So, when it makes sense,
we want to lean into different
partnerships, but it has to be something
that's really authentic and something
that really means something to both us
and the person that we're associated
with.
Trisha, one more question for me. I'm
just wondering in terms of um um planned
growth of the company. I know that
you're expanding and you have up upped
your um plan for for new stores. Um I'm
just wondering how you're thinking about
construction costs on the back of
tariffs and also are you hiring uh new
people at this point?
Yeah. And so our new growth is um is
very robust. This year we expect to open
68 to 70 new restaurants. And much like
the supply chain team, our design and
construction team has done an incredible
job navigating tariffs. And we're not
expecting any impacts to our overall
costs of our of our restaurants that we
open. In some cases, they were able to
minimize or offset some of the impacts
by ordering because of our strong
balance sheet, leveraging our balance
sheet to pre-order items to make sure
that we weren't as exposed to tariffs as
we might be. So team's done a great job
and as we grow, we anticipate that we
will have needs to continue to support
that growth as we move forward.
Trisha, always good to have you on the
program. Thanks so much for joining us
once again for the CFO briefing. That's
Trisha Toiver. She's the CFO of Cava.
Also with us, Nina Treman, Bloomberg
News senior editor. She writes the
Bloomberg CFO briefing newsletter. She
joins us here in the studio. Sign up for
the newsletter if you haven't already.
bloomberg.com/cfo-briefing.
I'm Tim Stenc along with Nora Melinda.
Let's take a look at some stocks on the
move today. We're joined by Bloomberg
News deputy team leader for US equities,
Jess Menon. Jess, if you're looking at
stocks that are moving lower. Wow, you
got a lot to choose from.
There is a lot today. And of course, I
have to talk about Walmart just given
it's among some of the top decliners in
the S&P 500. Also a Dow component. So
that's why you've seen that weighing on
that. So that stock's down about 5% so
on pace for its worst day since February
20th. It's an interesting story here
because when it comes to Walmart
retailers, a big tell on the consumer.
So it did have a rare profit miss. And
it was actually the first time in 3
years. So that did overshadow some of
the strength we saw when it came to
higher sales growth. But I wanted to
point out actually coming into this
year, Walmart was trading more like a
growth stock rather than a value stock.
before it reported its earnings back in
February. If you looked over like a
12-month basis, it was up uh around 70%.
So, there's only two other MAG 7 stocks
that didn't outperform at that time. It
was like Nvidia and Tesla. So, it's an
interesting story just given where its
valuation was coming into this year and
obviously back to school shopping
season. Second most important for
retailers ahead of course the holiday
shopping season. So looking at that uh
but even though you saw some of this
rare profit miss and some of those
higher claims there still was a bright
spot when it came uh to sales but again
we'll still have others uh raw stores
reporting after the bell we heard from
Target earlier this week and so keeping
a close eye on that and obviously it's
grocery business and how important that
is when you're those ties to inflation
uh and with even some of the tariff
issues there those still are going to
take a while for a lot of that to show
up in the company's report
right and you really are seeing some
weakness here in Walmart shares down as
much as four or 5.5% in trading today.
But when you look at Wall Street, we are
still seeing 43 buys, one hold and one
sell. So, it doesn't seem as though it's
too much of a negative shock here uh
quite yet. Talk to us about Cody. You're
also keeping an eye there, Jess. This is
quite the drop. So, it's down over 21%.
The ticker symbol on this is CO Ty. And
also, of course, it's on pace for its
worst day actually since March of 2020.
So this is an important company because
it is also in the consumer type of
retail space. So beauty and sense type
of company. So to put into context for
how it's tied to some of these, it's the
Rimmel owner and it actually posted a
unexpected quarterly adjusted loss of 5
cents per share. Analysts over at
Deutsche Bank though, they were flagging
how that company also faces some
transitions here and setbacks from
internal executive challenges, but they
think that the company can kind of get
over potentially that hurdle, but it was
of course a setback and indisputable
there. But that is one of those stocks
really getting pummeled actually down
21.5% right now. We got to save some
time for Cracker Barrel because
I don't understand. I don't understand
the discourse here around this logo
change which is just has hit the stock
so hard.
It really has. And I mean I'm from the
south. I've lived in New York
more emblematic of the world we live in
when like you know offspring of
politicians are getting involved in this
logo dispute with a company.
It's true. But I always thought about,
you know, when it'd be in the highways
in in Texas where you'd see kind of the
uh uh rolling um sort of the chairs they
had outside the business.
Same in Virginia.
Right. Exactly. But you did see this. So
specifically the ticker symbol for a
Cracker Barrel CB RL on this and it's
down actually 8% right now on pace for
its worst day since June 10th. But also
it's been on a string of losses right
now. So extending those declines to a
fifth straight day. So, there's a wave
of, of course, Tim was talking about
that wave of social media posts
surrounding that recent uh logo change
there and really kind of disrupting a
lot of this. So, the restaurant operator
actually issued a statement back on uh
August 19th. So, that would have been on
Tuesday uh announcing that it would be
launching a new campaign featuring
country music performing performer uh
Jordan Davis while also tweaking its
logo. So, a little bit different here,
probably unexpected for people. Uh to
Tim's point, a lot of people jumping in
on this. And then Cracker Barrel
actually was one of the top trending
tickers on Stock Twits. So some of my
kind of the retail crowd as well talking
about this. So Cracker Barrel didn't
immediately uh reply to requests for
comments for reporters that are on that
story right now. But it's an interesting
move here and especially just given not
even just today's losses, but the string
that it's been on for a while.
I will say Michael Halen of Bloomberg
Intelligence, he's a senior analyst. He
says he does not expect Cracker Barrel
to experience a prolonged negative
reaction. worries that the
misinformation on social media and
concern about the post will not will
result in a situation similar to what
happened with Bud Light are quote
unfounded according to a recent note
that he wrote. A big thank you to
Bloomberg News deputy team leader for US
equities Jess Menon. For more
conversations like this, check out our
new Stock Movers podcast. You can
subscribe for five minutee episodes on
the biggest winners and losers in the
stock market. Check out Stock Movers on
Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you get your
podcasts. Speaking of stocks that are
moving, taking a look at the major
indexes, the S&P 500 down 3/10en of 1%
as is the Nasdaq Composite. The Dow
right now down 3ten of 1%. Taking a
deeper dive into the S&P 500. Consumer
staples actually the worst performing
sector, the worst performing industry
group down 1.3%. Consumer discretionary
down 610 of 1%. Real estate down half a
percentage point. On the upside, only
three industry groups in the green. and
they include energy, materials, and
healthcare. That is going to do it for
Bloomberg Business Week Daily on
Bloomberg Television. If you're sticking
with us on Bloomberg Radio and on
YouTube and Bloomberg Originals, we got
a great program coming up over the next
couple of hours. We're going to be on
the ground in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Michael McKe, Bloomberg News
international economics and policy
correspondent will be there. Also, Tracy
Aloway, co-host of the Odd Lots podcast,
is going to be joining us a little bit
later. We're also going to do a deep
dive on retail with a reporter and an
analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence
breaking down everything that happened
this week with Walmart uh and of course
Target and TJX companies as well. That's
coming up next on Bloomberg Business
Week Daily. If you're sticking with TV,
the close is coming up next. I'm Tim
Stenbec. That's Nora Melinda. This is